Iran War Highlights Vulnerability of Fossil Fuel Reliance
While it’s by no means certain that national leaders around the globe will take the hint, the latest war in the near east is spotlighting the extreme vulnerability of a global economy reliant on a steady diet of oil and other fossil fuels.
Cutting Fossil Fuel Dependence
Caroline Baxter, director of the Converging Risks Lab at the Council on Strategic Risks in Washington, points to the “dramatic slowdown” of oil shipments to dependent economies like Japan and South Korea. “I think there is an opportunity, rightly or wrongly, for countries to really turn inward and try to power themselves in a way that cuts off their dependence on other nations for that source,” said Baxter, who was U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for force education and training from 2021 to 2024 under the Biden administration.
Baxter “wouldn’t be surprised” if that notably included a real shift to clean, renewable sources like solar and wind, because of the additional stability they offer. She says if “everyone does it in their backyard,” it will limit future climate change “without the thorny diplomatic negotiations and the glad-handing and the machinations behind closed doors” of international climate conferences. Energy analyst Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz of IEEFA Europe also sees the war resulting in more solar panels and heat pumps being installed in the almost equally vulnerable European nations.
Distant Conflicts Impact Households
In addition to the loss of life on both sides, including the tragic mistaken bombing of an Iranian girls’ school, the war also expends significant resources by the military that could be used at home.
A recent analysis by Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy found that due to the current war, roughly “20 percent of global supply and 31 percent of seaborne oil trade have effectively halted, compared with 7 percent during the 1973 Arab oil embargo, 6 percent in the 1990 Gulf war, 4 percent during the 1979 Iranian Revolution, and 3 percent at the outset of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.”
Courtney Federico, associate director for international climate policy at the Center for American Progress, said the Iran war is yet another reminder that tying U.S. economic security to oil and gas leaves households at the mercy of distant conflicts. She adds that Trump Administration strategies ranging from Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases to gas-tax holidays and expanded drilling are only “a very short-term Band-Aid.”
Clearly, the response from nations like the United States, undergoing our own internal political war over continuing the transition to a clean energy economy versus retreating into disastrous dependence on fossil fuels, is still in doubt. The Trump Administration is hopeless, but the future of its policies hangs in large part on the results of the 2026 mid-term elections for Congress.
Clean Energy Moves Forward in States
Meanwhile, a rising number of states are leading the way forward on clean energy. From Virginia to New England, backers of offshore wind who have beaten back Trump’s roadblocks in court are all charging forward toward completion of major projects.
In North Carolina, clean energy jobs are continuing to increase despite the Trump headwinds. From battery and solar manufacturing to energy-efficiency contractor work and grid upgrades, a new Chambers for Innovation and Clean Energy report finds that North Carolina’s clean energy job market has grown 13.8% since the pandemic. The group’s executive director, Ryan Evans, said that while solar energy generation initially pushed North Carolina into the nation’s top 10 for clean energy jobs, clean-technology manufacturing is now keeping it there.
The race to shape our clean energy future is continuing. Meanwhile, Trump’s latest war is showing how urgent it is for clean energy to win.
