North Carolina closes early voting with record-breaking turnout
Final early voting numbers in North Carolina show a record turnout for a midterm election, surpassing 2.8 million voters and up almost 25% from the last midterm election in 2022. More detailed analysis of the voting totals offers clues to the meaning of that surge in turnout.
For months, polling in North Carolina and around the nation has indicated strong dissatisfaction with the Trump Administration on a wide range of concerns, notably the rising cost of living (including energy costs), an unpopular foreign war, and the weakening of controls on air and water pollution. If those concerns are driving voter turnout, we would expect to see red flags for candidates of Trump’s political party, especially those associated with his policies.
The numerical breakdown
Counting both in-person early voting and mail-in absentee ballots, Democrats made up 38.4% of the total early voters in North Carolina, while Republicans made up only 26.2%, a 12.2 point advantage for the Democrats. That’s almost twice the 6.8 point difference in 2022, which was a less favorable year for Democratic candidates in North Carolina. However, it matched an identical 12.2 spread in 2018, a year of substantial gains for Democrats in the state legislature.
Examination of the raw numerical difference between Democratic and Republican voters comes with two cautions. First, it measures only who is turning out to vote, not how they voted. Second, it doesn’t account for unaffiliated voters (ie. “independents”), who are on the rise in North Carolina. Unaffiliated voters made up 35.2% of the early voters in 2026, more than in any other NC election 2018 through 2024.
However, polling numbers indicate that most unaffiliated voters share strong objections to Trump’s performance. Taken together, the strong turnout by Democratic voters and the rising number of unaffiliated voters suggest a strong advantage to environment-friendly candidates Roy Cooper for US Senate and Anita Earls for NC Supreme Court.
Some other numbers from the early voting totals show that the Democratic advantage is broad-based and likely to affect races across the state:
- Despite the extreme partisan gerrymandering of North Carolina’s Congressional district maps, which two years ago cut Democratic representation in North Carolina’s U.S. House delegation from seven to four of 14 seats, early turnout numbers showed a Democratic advantage in seven U.S. House districts this year.
- Democratic voter turnout outpaced its percentage of registered voters in all 100 counties, showing a much stronger motivation to vote by supporters of change away from current policies.
How will the unaffiliated vote?
Nationally known pollster Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling has a projection. In a November 1, Facebook post, Jensen projected a likely 20 point advantage in early voting for Roy Cooper and the Democratic statewide judicial candidates. He bases this on his analysis of the projected voting behavior of unaffiliated voters. Jensen said he believes unaffiliated voters broke heavily Democratic for three main reasons:
1) Most unaffiliateds do either usually vote Democratic or Republican, even if they’re not registered with the party. Therefore, it stands to reason that if Democrats are more motivated than Republicans, Democratic leaning unaffiliateds are more motivated than Republican leaning unaffiliateds.
2) The unaffiliateds who swing back and forth from election to election are almost always unhappy with the current political climate, and almost always take it out on the party in power. This dynamic will benefit Democrats in the upcoming election.
3) Nearly all young voters register unaffiliated. They have no use for the parties. One of the biggest swings toward Democrats this year is among young voters, and Democrats may win 2/3rds of the vote with them – even if those registered as unaffiliated.
Polling data which show young people more concerned by climate change than older Americans also bolsters Jensen’s analysis.
Last chance to get out and vote
If supporters of pro-environment candidates take the strong support they received during early voting as a reason to ease up their effort before Election Day, they risk losing that advantage. Historically, Democratic voters turn out more heavily for early voting, while Republican voters are more likely to wait until Election Day.
NCLCV encourages environment-minded voters to remind friends and family members who may not have voted yet that it is important that they vote on Tuesday, November 3.
Remember: if you did not vote early, election day voters must go to their home precinct.
Not sure where your home precinct votes? Check your voter registration here. Enter your first and last name and the county where you live. When your name pops up, click on it, then scroll down to find your voting location.
While you’re there, scroll down a little more, print out a copy of your sample ballot, and use it to have your decisions ready before you enter the voting booth. Among other things, that gives you a chance to check NCLCV’s Conservation PAC endorsements for the year here.
For those who haven’t yet voted, tomorrow, Tuesday November 3 is your last chance to have your voice heard in the 2026 elections. Polls are open in North Carolina from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. If you are in line waiting to vote when the polls close, you will be allowed to vote if you remain in line.
Your vote is your voice—make sure to use it!
Vote Against Amendments
Something that is unique about this year’s ballot is the constitutional amendments. We encourage you to vote AGAINST these amendments as they are scams designed to benefit wealthy corporations. Our local government and services will suffer the cost if these amendments pass. Learn more about these amendments here.